The GPT-4 Forecasting Challenge was an interesting way to test my assumptions about the model’s performance. Overall, GPT-4 performed about the same as I expected. My strategy started with assumptions about specific task strengths and weaknesses, and I adjusted my probabilities as I observed its responses. I noticed that GPT-4 was particularly strong at factual recall and sometimes structured reasoning but struggled with complex logic. One surprising result was weakness, which made me reconsider how I assess AI capabilities.