{"id":3147,"date":"2025-02-17T19:28:56","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T19:28:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/?p=3147"},"modified":"2025-07-18T15:00:40","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T15:00:40","slug":"lab-4-gpt-4-forecasting-challenge-2-17-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/2025\/02\/17\/lab-4-gpt-4-forecasting-challenge-2-17-25\/","title":{"rendered":"Lab 4: GPT-4 Forecasting Challenge (2\/17\/25)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today we&#8217;re revisiting the lab that got cancelled last Wednesday, and we&#8217;re keeping it simple: We&#8217;re going to do <a href=\"https:\/\/nicholas.carlini.com\/writing\/llm-forecast\/\">Nicholas Carlini&#8217;s GPT-4 Forecasting Challenge<\/a>. Work through the prompts and rank what you think the probability is of ChatGPT correctly answering the given question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When you&#8217;re done, post your results here with the tag &#8220;Forecasting&#8221; and write a couple sentences reflecting on how it went. Did the model do better or worse than you predicted? What was your strategy for prediction (50-50, or did you have assumptions about what kinds of tasks it would be better at?)?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today we&#8217;re revisiting the lab that got cancelled last Wednesday, and we&#8217;re keeping it simple: We&#8217;re going to do Nicholas Carlini&#8217;s GPT-4 Forecasting Challenge. Work through the prompts and rank what you think the probability is of ChatGPT correctly answering the given question. When you&#8217;re done, post your results here with the tag &#8220;Forecasting&#8221; and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sb_is_suggestion_mode":false,"_sb_show_suggestion_boards":false,"_sb_show_comment_boards":false,"_sb_suggestion_history":"","_sb_update_block_changes":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[22],"class_list":["post-3147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-labs","tag-forecasting","post-preview"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/160"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3147"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3147\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3175,"href":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3147\/revisions\/3175"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iris.siue.edu\/hum230sp25\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}